Side-by-side images of Dr. Dan Rickman on the left and Dr. Hongbo Wang on the right. These two OSU faculty members authored the research on this economic outlook.

Economic Outlook 2025: Navigating challenges amid slowing growth

Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Media Contact: Stephen Howard | Manager of Communications | 405-744-4363 | stephen.howard@okstate.edu

The Center for Applied Economic Research at Oklahoma State University’s Spears School of Business has released its updated annual Economic Outlook for 2025, offering insights into national and Oklahoma economic trends.

Authored by OSU faculty members Dr. Dan Rickman and Dr. Hongbo Wang, the report projects slower economic growth, persistent inflation and heightened risks due to evolving federal policies.

The Federal Reserve’s efforts to achieve a “soft landing” have led to reduced interest rates following earlier hikes, but inflation remains sticky. United States gross domestic product growth is forecast at 2% for 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, while inflation is expected to exceed 3%, driven by anticipated tariffs and reduced immigration. Unemployment rates are also projected to rise modestly through 2025 and into 2026.

Oklahoma’s economy, while mirroring national trends, faces unique challenges, including a lagging recovery in its energy sector. Energy prices are forecast to remain subdued, contributing to slower growth in the state. Nevertheless, Oklahoma’s unemployment rate is expected to stay below the national average.

Key risks outlined in the report include potential federal policy changes, such as higher-than-expected tariffs, mass deportations and political gridlock. These developments could exacerbate inflation, suppress GDP growth and raise unemployment.

“Our analysis highlights the importance of understanding policy impacts on both the national and local economies,” Rickman said. “Oklahoma’s resilience in certain sectors, such as construction, health care and professional services, provides a buffer, but risks remain.”

The report emphasizes the need for vigilance and adaptability in navigating the economic landscape amidst geopolitical and policy uncertainties.

The full Economic Outlook 2025 report is available here. For media inquiries or further information, please contact Dan Rickman at the Center for Applied Economic Research.

About the Center for Applied Economic Research
The Center for Applied Economic Research at Oklahoma State University conducts economic analysis and forecasting to inform policymakers, businesses and the public about critical economic trends and developments.