OSU economists warn of slowing U.S. and Oklahoma growth as tariffs, labor softening cloud 2026 outlook
Monday, November 24, 2025
Media Contact: Stephen Howard | Director of Marketing & Communications | 405.744.4363 | stephen.howard@okstate.edu
The U.S. economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as inflation shows signs of resurging and the once-strong labor market begins to soften, according to a new forecast from the Center for Applied Economic Research (CAER) at Oklahoma State University.
The report, Economic Outlook 2026: Peering through the Fog, notes that forecasters must weigh risks from increased tariffs, reduced immigration, federal government dysfunction and uncertainty in Federal Reserve strategy, which together act as a drag on growth. Data center investment for AI has provided the primary source of significant positive economic growth nationally.
Federal Reserve policymakers reduced interest rates for the second time this year in October, bringing the federal funds target to 3.75–4%, but have cautioned that further cuts are not assured. The absence of key federal economic data — a result of the recent government shutdown — complicates decision-making at a pivotal moment. After 3.8% U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025, national expansion is forecast to decelerate sharply to 0.8% in the fourth quarter before rebounding later in 2026. Long-term, growth is expected to remain below the 2% historical trend.
The authors of the report, CAER economists and Spears School of Business faculty members Dr. Dan Rickman and Dr. Hongbo Wang, released the following statement on their findings:
“We are at an unusually fragile point. The Fed is walking a tightrope — move too fast with rate cuts, and inflation can take root. Move too slowly, and the job market could falter. The worst possible outcome is a combination of higher inflation and sluggish growth.”
Oklahoma’s economy is projected to lag the U.S. through most of 2026, influenced by weaker energy markets and slower workforce gains. After a post-pandemic recovery, the energy sector — a critical driver for Oklahoma — is losing momentum. Oil prices are forecast to decline significantly because of increasing global inventories. Oklahoma’s energy employment is expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels into 2026.
Energy has long been a significant component of Oklahoma’s economy, and its underperformance relative to the nation remains a major concern for state growth, the report finds.