OSU economists available for comment about U.S. GDP growth and economic recovery

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

(Nov. 4, 2009 Stillwater, OK) – Russell Evans and Kyle Dean, director and associate director of the Center for Applied Economic Research at OSU are available for comment about the current state of the economy.

Evans on U.S. GDP growth:
“The U.S. GDP growth of annualized rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter reflects the effects of fiscal programs to stimulate consumer expenditures as well as developing recovery.”
“GDP growth in the third quarter excluding autos was 1.9 percent; this speaks to a heavy influence of the cash for clunkers program.”
“New home construction (residential fixed investment) made a positive contribution to GDP growth for first time in more than three years; this reflects the influence of the first-time homebuyer tax credit program.”
“Excluding cash for clunkers and new home construction, U.S. GDP growth was around 1.5 percent in the third quarter; this number is a more accurate reflection of the state of the economic recovery.”

Evans on continued national economic recovery:
“The Center for Applied Economic Research in the Spears School expects fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010 U.S. GDP growth to fall to around 1.5 percent.”
“September personal consumption contracts or $47.2 billion (or 0.5%) in September indicate a drag on U.S. GDP. This foreshadows a more modest expansion in the fourth quarter of 2009.”
“First-time jobless claims edged down in the third quarter, but they still are high at 530,000. First-time jobless claims of 425,000 to 450,000 are good indicators of expanding employment, so while we have made progress, we still aren’t there yet.”

Evans on Oklahoma economic recovery:
“When recovery begins in earnest, Oklahoma’s fate will be tied partially to the strength of its regional banks (access to local credit) and effectiveness of fiscal stimulus projects.”
“Oklahoma continues to outperform the nation, but waits for signs of economic life from oil & gas, manufacturing, and professional and business services.”

To schedule an interview with Evans or Dean, call the Center for Applied Economic Research at 405-744-7405.

NOTE: The Center for Applied Economic Research will release the 2010 Oklahoma Economic Outlook report November 17 at a conference from 8:30 a.m. to noon at the Moore-Norman Career Tech South Penn Campus.